Directly descended from one of the signers of the Declaration of Independence, New Hampshire Democrat Bartlet exudes a country-lawyer charisma that complements his brilliance, his deep conviction and his devotion to what he believes is right for the country. A brilliant academician in her own right, first lady Dr. Abigail "Abbey" Bartlet series star Stockard Channing staunchly supports her husband but does not hesitate to keep him in line when necessary.
New Leadership Unlikely To Bring Reform President Muhammadu Buhari faces an uphill battle towards securing a second term in office in the February general elections.
Since his election inBuhari has struggled to make meaningful progress on the promises he made during his campaign, including tackling corruption and insecurity and delivering a broad-based economic recovery. While we will not forecast the election outcome until the opposition People's Democratic Party PDP confirms its candidate, the opposition will undoubtedly benefit from Buhari's low approval ratings.
The CUPP includes a number of smaller parties that have broken away from the ruling All Progressives Congress, highlighting limited cohesion within Buhari's support base. That said, even if the PDP wins, there is little indication that it would deliver a radically different economic agenda.
We also believe that outbreaks of violence and bouts of localised instability will remain very much part of Nigeria's political outlook. Deep divisions across Nigeria along religious, geographic and economic fault lines leave the country susceptible to often violent factionalism.
Such threats include not only Islamist militant group Boko Haram, but continued violence between the country's nomadic herdsmen and farmers, as well as the Niger Delta Avengers insurgency. The biggest risks to continuity are a significant breakdown in the cohesion of the PDP or a decision by President Buhari not to run again.
The latter could come about due to health issues Buhari has visited the UK numerous times for medical treatment during his first term or on the back of pressure from within his party, given his relatively weak approval ratings. The junta likely has the loyalty of the member Senate who owe their appointment to the military, and just requires pro-military parties to win a simple majority in the member, elected House of Representatives.
However, the February timeline for elections faces risks of a further delay; elections will likely take place only when the NCPO is confident that pro-military parties will win. Deputy Prime Minister Wissanu Kreangam said at the end of May that elections could take place '11 months from now', signalling a possible May date for the elections.
Such a delay could exacerbate demonstrations calling for elections to be held sooner and undermine social stability. The junta's declining popularity and the perceived favouritism it has shown towards pro-military parties make an extended Prayut premiership, should it materialise, a potentially unstable one, liable to attract disruptive demonstrations.
The junta's popularity has slipped since coming to power inwith a poll conducted by security agencies indicating a 5. Based on current opinion polls, President Petro Poroshenko and his Solidarity Petro Poroshenko Bloc - People's Front coalition government will likely be replaced by Yulia Tymoshenko and her Fatherland party see chart below.
While Tymoshenko's Fatherland party's victory in the parliamentary election seems very likely, with the party enjoying a 7. Both Oleh Lyashko of the Radical party and Anatoliy Hrytsenko of the Civil Position Party have been gaining ground since the presidential elections, making the outcome of a second-round run-off too close to call at this point in time.
What is certain in our view however, is that compared to the current administration of Petro Poroshenko, the country will be inching closer towards political populism, raising macro-financial stability risks in the years ahead.
We see downside macro-financial stability risks if the populist pre-election rhetoric were to prevail in day-to-day policy. Both Tymoshenko's Fatherland party and Lyashko's Radical party advocate higher wages and pensions, as well as expanded use of state subsidies. Such policies stand at odds with the country's IMF bailout programme, which is due to expire in A renewal of the IMF programme is however essential for macro-financial stability, as Ukraine cannot shoulder its rising external debt repayment burden without further financial aid from its international donors.
The simmering conflict in Eastern Ukraine remains a wild card, and we cannot preclude an uptick in fighting if Ukraine seeks to drum up nationalist support or Russia seeks to take advantage of political paralysis in Kiev.
National opinion polls Indonesia: The powerful Golkar party has nominated its chairman, Airlangga Hartarto, to be Jokowi's running mate.
Jokowi's main challenger is likely to be opposition Gerindra party leader Prabowo Subianto, who lost narrowly in the elections. Prabowo will likely pair up with Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan, who defeated Ahok Jokowi's ally at the Jakarta gubernatorial election.
Rumours of a third pair formed by incumbent Vice President Jusuf Kalla from Golkar and Agus Yudhoyono son of former president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono of the Democratic Party Dems have emerged after the party revealed plans to form a third coalition to contest the presidential election.
Jokowi's approval ratings remain high, but the result of the June regional elections, which was seen as a test of the President's reform agenda, was a mixed bag. Moreover, it seems that Islamist sentiment continues to grow in Indonesia, while the use of identity politics politicisation of race, religion, and ethnicity remains prevalent and powerful in swaying voter sentiment.
The majority of Indonesians are moderate Muslims, but the effectiveness of identity politics can be seen in the Jakarta gubernatorial election, and again in the North Sumatra and West Java gubernatorial elections.
Jokowi's moderate religious credentials do not sit well with more conservative nationalist and Islamist groups, which typically back Prabowo.
Support for the BJP appears to be strong across India, with the party having increased the number of state legislative assemblies under its control to 21 out of a total of 29 states, from just seven in If the BJP continues in government, we would expect policy continuity and the continued progress of pro-business economic reforms.
Given India's bicameral parliament structure, a second term for the BJP could see reform momentum accelerate afterwhen it is most likely to secure a majority in the upper house, given the ongoing state election cycle.
In the event that India's fragmented opposition manage to co-ordinate their efforts against the BJP in the elections, their presence in parliament could grow significantly. In the event that the opposition manages to form the government, this could result in a reversal of the BJP's policies, hurting the domestic business environment.Birt celebrates 40 years as firefighter As a child, Bill Birt dreamed of being a fireman.
He made that dream a reality in when he became a firefighter because “it was . Phoenix, Arizona. – Jesse Jones had the deck stacked against him at the recent SCORE Tecate Baja “We lost first gear in the transmission right out of the gate during qualifying,” Jones shared.
NR: I think it gets overplayed a lot, I think she’ll drop out by tomorrow, this has just built up a political machine for the democrats but this machine isn’t going to hurt us, it’s going to help us in November, but as I’ve said before if anyone can lose in November it’s the democrats.
Rep. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.) said a man asked whether it was Republicans or Democrats who were practicing before a shooter opened fire on the field, wounding Rep. Steve Scalise (R-La.) and at least. is and in to a was not you i of it the be he his but for are this that by on at they with which she or from had we will have an what been one if would who has her.
Current state of the game: 45 like Democrats, 7 toss-ups, 48 Republicans. Of the toss-up races, 4 lean Democrat and 3 lean Republican.